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The probability of the tag Model (M) comes after the tag is as seen in the table. Also, the probability that the word Will is a Model is 3/4. In the same manner, we calculate each and every probability in the graph. Now the product of these probabilities is the likelihood that this sequence is right. Since the tags are not correct, the product is zero.

As we can see in the figure above, the probabilities of all paths leading to a node are calculated and we remove the edges or path which has lower probability cost. Also, you may notice some nodes having the probability of zero and such nodes have no edges attached to them as all the paths are having zero probability. The graph obtained after computing probabilities of all paths leading to a node is shown below:

This predicament where you would have to decide and this decision of yours that can lead to results with equal probability is nothing else but said to be the state of maximum uncertainty. In case, I had only caramel latte coffee pouches or cappuccino pouches then we know what the outcome would have been and hence the uncertainty (or surprise) will be zero.

The entropy or the impurity measure can only take value from 0 to 1 as the probability ranges from 0 to 1 and hence, we do not want the above situation. So, to make the curve and the value of log2 pi back to zero, we multiply log2 pi with the probability i.e. with pi itself.